Roller marks are straight, parallel lines that appear on the surface of the coin, and go underneath the devices. Although roller marks has always been the traditional explanation for these marks, there might be other causes, too. Learn all about roller marks and similar phenomena.
Adjustment marks can be seen on this 1797 half dollar.
Filed Under: Featured, Market Reports & Prices, Commentary and Opinion
By Doug Winter - RareGoldCoins.com
It’s been a longstanding tradition of mine to write a What’s Hot/What’s Not blog a few times a year. The last time I did this was, I believe, around the beginning of 2009. A lot has changed since then and, as we head into the summer, I’d like to share my thoughts about the coin market in general and United States gold coins to be more specific.
In the past, it was always very easy to discuss those areas of the market that were “hot.” But with the current economic situation, it probably makes more sense to discuss what’s “not in meltdown mode” instead of what’s doing well.
I’ve been pretty surprised at, all things considered, how well the market has held up. When you consider that most people’s 401k plans are down 50-60% since September 2008 and that many people’s homes have lost 50% or so in value….the losses that we’ve seen in many parts of the coin market aren’t looking quite that bad.
Let’s take a look at a few specific areas and see how they are holding up and what my forecast is for them in the immediate future. The first is early gold. I would have to say that the early gold market has held up far better than most other areas in the coin market. Prices are down around 10-20% for the most part but demand for early gold remains strong and many early gold coins remain quite liquid. The biggest change I’ve noticed in this area of the market is related to quality. If an early gold coin is very nice (nice enough, in this case, to have received a CAC sticker) it is a reasonably easy sale even in this market. I think this is especially true with coins in the $5,000-20,000 range. The more expensive early gold issues are harder to sell right now, even if they are very nice and/or very exotic.
One area of the early gold market that seems to be experiencing a noticeable price correction is the Capped Bust Right Heraldic Eagle ten dollar gold type. I think this is very understandable when you consider that these coins got very pricey in the past few years and that many of the ones in third-party holders are just awful.
I’d have to call the Charlotte and Dahlonega market pretty spotty right now. In their February Long Beach sale, Heritage had a massive amount of C+D gold coins and many prices were very cheap. But unless you really understand the market (and saw the coins in the sale) it is hard to make bold declarations. My take on the C+D market is that there are a lot of truly wretched coins on the market right now and the bottom feeders are either out of money or able to buy the schlock so cheaply that they are dragging prices down for the decent coins. As far as really nice (or really rare) C+D gold goes, this is an entirely different market altogether. Coins like 1855-D gold dollars or 1856-D quarter eagles in wholesome Extremely Fine and better grades are doing just fine and I’m not sure they’ve dropped in value at all since September 2008.
Proof gold is another area that has clearly dropped but I’m not really certain exactly how much. It is clear that the not interesting, bright-n-shiny pieces are off at least 20% or in some cases even more. But it is hard to figure out what really nice Proof gold is worth right now since so little of it has sold in the past six months. My guess is that a high quality, low mintage issue from the 1860’s or 1870’s would bring around 10-15% less than it might of a year ago. The areas that seem hardest hit by the current Numismatic Malaise include Matte Proofs and smaller denomination Proofs from the late 19th century.
20th century gold has been hit harder by the economic downturn than 19th century gold. Expensive coins in the Indian Head series (quarter eagles, half eagles and eagles) are clearly weak. These areas were actually slumping even before September 2008 and for a variety of reasons. The Indian Head quarter eagle series had its major market maker pull way back with purchases, causing a significant drop in demand. Better date Indian Head half eagles and eagles have always been rather thinly traded and, as been the case for as long as I can remember, by happenstance both happened to be at low ebbs in their typical up and down flow. Saints had been very active until early 2007 but the market slowed down after a number of major collectors either sold their coins or cut back on their purchases. Ironically, the generic issues in these four series have been very solid performers in this market.
Two areas that seem to be holding up rather well are New Orleans gold and Type One double eagles. These are markets that are dominated by collectors and there is almost always strong demand for the limited number of choice, interesting coins that are offered for sale. I am noting a softening in the very high end of both of these areas (i.e., issues such as 1866-S No Motto double eagles) but the low to upper-mid price range of both areas seems pretty liquid right now. Coins that are in demand right now include better date New Orleans half eagles and eagles in the EF40 to Uncirculated range, Type One Philadelphia double eagles that are priced in the $2,000-7,000 range and anything in these two areas that is “exotic.” (an example of this would be a No Motto New Orleans eagle in Uncirculated that is one of fewer than four-five known).
From my own personal experience, I am noting a resurgence of interest in the last 45-60 days. I am selling considerably more coins now than I was a few months ago. But, there is a clear difference in the market. Collectors are much more selective than they were before and expensive coins (in my case, $20,000 and above) take longer to sell than they did in the past.
I expect the next few months to be pretty quiet. There are only two significant shows between now and the Summer ANA and at least one (the Baltimore show in June) is likely to have much lower attendance than the other editions of this convention. I think prices will hold firm between now and ANA with occasional spikes up and down that are mostly related to bullion movement.
Provided by coinlink.com
American Eagle shortage ending?
Posted by Dave
Gold buyers for most of the past year have interpreted the shortage of American Eagle gold and silver bullion coins as an indication that the prices of precious metals should rise, even when the exchanges, which trade “paper gold,” were declining.
Now there are indications that the American Eagle shortage is ending.
In the prior two weeks, the 14 purchasers authorized to buy the American Eagle coins from the U.S. Mint have not taken the maximum number of coins that are available, leaving the Mint with an extra 39,000 one-ounce gold American Eagles and 185,000 extra silver American Eagles.
These numbers are not large, but the trend is confirmed by Coin Market editor Harry Miller. He reported in his weekly column on the Coin Market at a Glance pages in Numismatic News yesterday that premiums on these coins have returned to the normal levels that prevailed before the shortages began. Indiana dealer Julian Jarvis three weeks ago was the first to point in this direction in an interview for Coin Chat Radio and Numismatic News.
If this is indeed the end of the shortage, will gold buyers interpret this as an indication that gold bullion prices should stay where they are or fall?
I think you know the answer to that question.
Interestingly, “paper gold” has been rising in price in recent days, now over $950 a troy ounce.
Perhaps gold buyers will find in this market a new best friend and market indicator.
provided by buzz with Dave Harper
American Eagle shortage ending?
Posted by Dave
Gold buyers for most of the past year have interpreted the shortage of American Eagle gold and silver bullion coins as an indication that the prices of precious metals should rise, even when the exchanges, which trade “paper gold,” were declining.
Now there are indications that the American Eagle shortage is ending.
In the prior two weeks, the 14 purchasers authorized to buy the American Eagle coins from the U.S. Mint have not taken the maximum number of coins that are available, leaving the Mint with an extra 39,000 one-ounce gold American Eagles and 185,000 extra silver American Eagles.
These numbers are not large, but the trend is confirmed by Coin Market editor Harry Miller. He reported in his weekly column on the Coin Market at a Glance pages in Numismatic News yesterday that premiums on these coins have returned to the normal levels that prevailed before the shortages began. Indiana dealer Julian Jarvis three weeks ago was the first to point in this direction in an interview for Coin Chat Radio and Numismatic News.
If this is indeed the end of the shortage, will gold buyers interpret this as an indication that gold bullion prices should stay where they are or fall?
I think you know the answer to that question.
Interestingly, “paper gold” has been rising in price in recent days, now over $950 a troy ounce.
Perhaps gold buyers will find in this market a new best friend and market indicator.
provided by buzz with Dave Harper
By James West
MidasLetter.com
Monday, May 25, 2009
Here we go again. The forces of legitimate money versus the incumbent purveyors of the candy floss economy squared off at the $1,000 an ounce line over which yet another battle will be fought. Arrayed against either side are formidable new elements and tried and true old ones. As usual, the first volley has been catapulted over the walls of the hucksters by the defenders of the essential timeless truth of gold’s naturally stored value against the counterfeit paper currencies.
The liabilities of the enemy have increased, and the short positions in the COMEX market are sufficiently stacked that the big bank defenders simply cannot allow gold to win decisively. G7 governments are allied against gold to a man, while emerging economic behemoths China and Russia stand in opposition.
In particular, China’s revelations that it has been in a continuous accumulation mode for the last several years and is now the fifth largest sovereign reserve of gold has created an impetus in the gold camp that has been seen lacking in the past. Institutional and sovereign investment entities now perceive a floor in the gold price based on this information, and one must beg the question as to why China would make such a revelation when it threatens to undermine the value of its $2 trillion in U.S. debt holdings.
China has also been careful to avoid buying gold on the international market, for fear, it says, of creating a stampede into the precious metals that would immediately increase the cost of its stated intention to continue accumulating gold towards the backing of the yuan (renmibi) as a global reserve currency.
Yet that is precisely what has happened. Ostensibly, the justification for tipping their hand exists in the fact that they’ve resigned themselves to the fact that selling poison toys and pet foods to Americans in exchange for a currency that loses value like light into a black hole is an acceptable if imperfect transaction. With $50 billion a year in interest payments from the U.S., they can hedge the risk buy using it to buy gold.
With the perceived floor arguably at $850, downside risk is limited in gold far more so than in U.S. treasuries, which, if mainstream media is to be taken as remotely credible, is the current favorite of safe haven investors.
‘Safe Haven’ is about to get painted with same fragrant brush as ‘AAA-rated’ investments.
Goldbugs are salivating at the prospect of vindication, but seasoned veterans of the war know that the governments and central banks arrayed against gold are not fair fighters. Since the largest players in the futures market occupy both sides of the contract, and never take delivery of the physical gold, they can orchestrate a perpetual negative sentiment towards gold by driving the future price downward by simply amping up the short positions, thus making gold appear poised for a sell-off. This has been standard operating procedure for the last decade, and it is interesting to note that ever-bigger short positions are having less influence over shorter durations before the bulls shrug off the flimsy performance and take gold higher.
Critics and observers of this U.S. Dollar image management program point to the fact that such activity, while shoring up demand for U.S. Dollar debt in the short terms, effectively undermines the entire global economy, and is among the fundamental causes of financial crises such as the housing collapse and the whole current global financial fiasco.
Proponents of this manipulation, who are increasingly legion in number, correctly predict an inevitable bursting of the damn catalyzed by investment demand overwhelming the short positions, forcing them to buy and cover to limit losses, which will, in itself, stimulate the gold price even further.
With the limited oversight and feeble reporting standards of the CFTC, the ploy is facilitated by complicit (or ignorant) regulators who ensure data is obfuscated and disclosure limited. It has been this collective effort on the part of the Dollar Defenders that continuously defeats gold’s advances, repeatedly castrating the bulls and sending them whimpering to lick their wounds and regroup.
But China is now leading the charge, and the bet is that they’re willing to forgo the lost value of their USD holdings to decisively undermine the global reserve currency once and for all and replace it with the Yuan, a move that would effectively mark the beginning in the shift of the global balance of power from west to east.
The United States, overextended militarily across the Middle East and Asia, with new fronts threatening to open in Iran and Pakistan, is perilously close to an international nervous breakdown. China’s opportunity is to ride to the rescue bearing smiles and steamed pork buns while dividing up what is left of the American industrial asset pool.
Our leadership of the last decade (or more accurately, absence thereof), eager to lubricate the workings of multinational financial interests, have inadvertently played into the patient hands of their biggest creditor by prostituting the national currency shamelessly to the point where every nation in the world can see what used up piece of spent jet trash the old USD has become.
While mainstream media dismisses the idea of the Yuan replacing the dollar as the international monetary standard, those of us who have tuned out at the perception management program on CNN recognize the event as halfway accomplished.
The truly explosive moment for gold will occur when the Chinese, at their discretion, decide to spring the trap, and abandon USD completely in favor of gold, suddenly spiking the price of gold straight north in tandem with the complete collapse of the U.S. dollar.
Don’t pay any attention to the second rate hacks trying to claim credit for predicting the fall…its been predicted repeatedly throughout history from Nostradamus to Roubini. Any student of economic history with 20/20 vision could see this coming, and here it is. “I told you so” is a waste of time. Who’s offering a solution?
Whether or not this particular battle at the Great Wall of $1,000 an ounce is the mother of all battles remains to be seen. Desperate times call for desperate measures, and while G7 governments collude to retain power, the unforeseeable is the greatest threat to gold.
That being said, veteran observers are optimistic, to say the least.
According to Bill Murphy, intrepid soldier of gold wars and standard bearer for the Gold Anti-trust Action Committee,
“The Gold Cartel is giving it all they have no, as evidenced by the sharply rising gold open interest on the Comex … up some 23,000 contracts on Wednesday and Thursday. They are doing all they can to counter new spec buying.My hunch is the next time we see $1,000, and that could be very soon, gold ought to take off from there, giving us more upside dynamic daily moves. The reasons to own physical gold are off the charts … HUGE investment demand, shrinking visible central bank supply (unrelated to the cabal), shrinking mine supply, shrinking dollar, concerns over sovereign wealth debt, a horrible US economy, and a US printing press that is going flat out and will have to for some time to come.
In my opinion, all gold has to do is to stay over $1,000 for a few days, and then all kinds of bells and whistles go off.”
Bill is not the only one who thinks the breakthrough is at hand. Bob Moriarty of 321gold.com, himself a historically prescient oracle of market crashes agrees and warns that the stock market will be the first casualty of the new financial reality.
“If you take a look at the dollar and the long bond, it looks as if they jumped off a cliff. This isn’t gold going up, it’s the dollar and bonds going down. When the market wakes up the stock market is going to take a giant dump. No more fake rally.”
Investors by now should be well equipped to read the writing on the wall. Whether gold breaks through $1,000 and holds there, charts new territory at much higher levels, or is beaten back down through the offices of JP Morgan, HSBC and Goldman Sachs, is irrelevant.
Gold producer stocks are up, on average, over 22% this year in the Midas Model Portfolios, while intermediate producers and close-to-production juniors have piled on gains ranging from 20 to 200%, all since January this year.
You won’t hear anybody pointing that fact out on television, and you won’t hear that from your broker, in most cases. But the lesson is clear. Gold bullion is the place to be for wealth preservation, and gold producers and explorers is where risk capital is going to see utterly stupendous gains this year.
If you buy the hype of Wall Street and Washington and wade into the general equities markets, you have nobody to blame but yourself for the heavy losses you will surely sustain.
Printed from: http://www.midasletter.com/commentary/090525-1_Gold-battle-lines-drawn-at-1000-dollar-an-ounce-again.php
May 26 (Bloomberg) — Gold may target a record $1,250 an ounce as a continuation head-and-shoulders pattern may be forming within a longer-term trend, Standard Bank Group Ltd. said, citing trading patterns.
A break and close above $1,050.40 “provides warning that an important breakout” has occurred, Darran Grabham, the bank’s technical analyst, wrote in a note yesterday. A head-and- shoulders pattern is formed when a commodity makes three consecutive peaks, with the middle being the highest. It forms during a series of increases over time.
“The positive implications are substantial, with the minimum objective situated at $1,250,” Grabham wrote. “On the downside, gold weakness through $864 turns the outlook bearish, and the weaker trend could then continue towards $802.”
Gold for immediate delivery traded little changed at $957.29 an ounce at 8:09 a.m. Singapore time. The precious metal is down 7.4 percent from its record high of $1,032.70 on March 17, 2008.
In the near term, a negative bias is expected to dominate in the days ahead as the positive trend has faltered in the $960 to $966.70 area, Grabham wrote.
“A decline into the $940 to $935 zone is anticipated, with $935 regarded as an important support point over the next week or so,” he wrote. “We expect gold to enter a period of consolidation below $966.70, before a break higher occurs, setting up a test on $980.” So-called support levels are where buy orders are clustered.
“If $935 gives way — delaying the next move higher — the sell-off could continue to $925, with $915 representing another key near-term support level,” Grabham added. “Weakness through $915 negates the positive outlook, exposing the market to the $895 to $885 area.”
To contact the reporter on this story: Glenys Sim in Singapore at Gsim4@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: May 25, 2009 20:59 EDT
Photo of Thomas Jefferson’s First Spouse gold coin Reverse shows Jefferson’s tombstone.
Photo of Thomas Jefferson’s First Spouse gold coin Reverse shows Jefferson’s tombstone.
What is a Coin Blank? Coin Blank is defined on this coin terms glossary page.